The Royals host the Athletics in a one-game, winner-take-all elimination round for the right to face the Angels.
I just got here. Who are these guys?
The Royals: The Royals can't hit, but with their rotation and bullpen they haven't had to.
The Athletics: The A's were baseball's best team for four months until they were one of its worst for the last two.
Why should I watch this?
Q: These teams didn't even win their divisions and are probably bad. Why do I care about them facing off in a one-game playoff?
A: Neither of these teams is bad! OK, maybe the A's are. It's kind of difficult to figure them out at this point since a 97-loss pace over the final two months kept them from clinching until game 162, but as they showed in the season's first four months when they were baseball's best team, they're capable of being great. Their best pitcher is taking the mound on Tuesday in a winner-take-all, Thunderdome-style baseball game, and he'll be facing off against the best (and, well, only) playoff starter that the Royals have had since 1985. The A's haven't won the World Series since 1989, despite plenty of success getting to the playoffs in the intervening years, and many Royals fans probably still don't believe that Kansas City is in the playoffs, since they weren't even aware it was allowed by the rules of the game.
In short, it's going to be a dramatic game for both teams and both fan bases, and you can either pick a side or, if you're evil, just revel in the knowledge that a whole lot of hearts are going to be broken regardless of the outcome.
Q: I am still not sold on the lack of badness in a game that involves the Kansas City Royals, sorry.
A: While I'll admit the Royals' lineup isn't thrilling, Alex Gordon is one of the better players in the game. Billy Butler remembered that the job of a designated hitter is to hit, and did so over the last few months of the year. Lorenzo Cain is one of the more intriguing players you've never heard of, an above-average hitter who can steal a base (28 in 33 chances this year) while playing a quality center.
The pitching is where it's at, though. The Royals traded for James Shields not only to bring Kansas City to the playoffs, but in case this kind of do-or-die moment appeared. The bullpen is full of pitchers who throw roughly 1,000 miles per hour and are impossible to hit: Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera all posted ERAs of 1.44 or lower this year, with Davis settling in at an even 1.00. Shields in conjunction with those dudes means a fantastic pitching performance could be in the offing and you will miss it if you keep being stubborn.
Lorenzo Cain (Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports).
Q: OK fine, maybe the Royals are good. You mentioned the A's are bad now, though, so ...
A: If you need more excitement, look at this like a high-stakes wrestling match where the loser has to quit the company. Both Jon Lester and James Shields will be free agents after the season, so Tuesday's wild card game could be the last one they ever pitch for their respective financially conscious teams. That means this game is possibly the last best chance for either of these rosters -- as lame as the A's have been of late, they are still loaded with talent that won't all necessarily be around in 2015, and the Royals might lose a few key bodies this winter as well.
Seriously, focus on the potential for heartbreak here. It's why the meaner of us watch sports.
I am mean and also intrigued. Go on.
Q: Please tell me an important statistic I should pay attention to for this game, because I love statistics.
A: The A's went 7-4 in Jon Lester's starts, and 15-29 with anyone else on the mound while he was on the roster. They probably should have been better than that in his games, since he posted a 2.35 ERA, however ...
Q: I was kidding, I hate statistics. Nerd.
A: Do you like first-inning bunts? Royals manager Ned Yost will probably scratch that itch for you while desperately trying to get Shields a lead to work with.
Q: Are you criticizing first-inning bunts? Sounds like stats talk to me.
A: Everything is a stat. Let me tell you about the pitching matchup okay?
Q: I would like that, thank you.
A: As I was saying, Jon Lester's 2014 was amazing. He's gone relatively unnoticed thanks to Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber and Chris Sale, but even if Lester isn't the top pick for the Cy Young, he's one of the most dangerous opponents the Royals could face. This season, he managed a 2.46 ERA in 219⅔ innings for an average of 6⅔ innings per start, struck out 4.6 times more batters than he walked, and just happens to have both a strong history against the Royals and in playoff games.
In 13 games against the Royals in his career, Lester has held them to a .196/.276/.264 line while allowing a single home run in 353 plate appearances. He's posted a 1.84 ERA over 88 innings while averaging 6⅔ frames per outing, and just so happens to have twirled a no-hitter against them in May of 2008. You might think this doesn't matter much since not every one of these games came against these Royals, but please remember this important fact: These Royals can't hit, either, and were last in the AL in both walks and homers, as well as the all-encompassing OPS+. That last is a reminder that their issues are not entirely park-related.
Jon Lester (Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports).
As for Lester's playoff career, he's been on two World Series-winning clubs -- the 2007 and 2013 Red Sox -- and did his fair share of the lifting to make that happen: in 11 postseason starts stretching back to 2007, Lester owns a 1.97 ERA, and is his usual workhorse-y self with 6⅔ innings per outing.
The Royals have won without homers or offense to this point, though, so they aren't necessarily doomed even with Lester opposing them. Especially not with James Shields on the mound. Shields is even more of a horse than Lester, with an average of 223 innings per season dating back to 2007 behind him, as well as his own ability to avoid walks and miss bats. He hasn't had the same playoff success as Lester, but that's all due to one poor start in which he gave up seven runs to the Rangers in 2011: otherwise, he's been himself, and that's a damn good starter.
Q: So what you're saying is that the offenses are in trouble.
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A: Well, the Royals' offense is, but they're pretty used to that by now. They finished last in the AL in OPS+, as mentioned, but just to rub in how poor that is, they finished behind last-place teams like the Red Sox, Rangers and Twins, as well as lineups full of mostly anonymous players in Houston and New York. Again, Gordon can hit, Butler is capable of things that resemble hitting and Cain has his uses at the plate, but otherwise this is not an exciting lineup. Players like backstop Salvador Perez are good enough for their position, but no one truly stands out other than Gordon.
As for the A's, much was made of them losing Yoenis Cespedes and with him their ability to hit, but there are still plenty of bats here. Josh Reddick came on strong while the rest of Oakland burned around him, and finished with a 115 OPS+. Josh Donaldson had another season that should merit him some MVP consideration. Brandon Moss had a brutal second half at least in part due to injury, but he's a high-quality hitter who can send the ball into orbit. The strength of Oakland's attack relies entirely on which version of the team shows up. If it's the one that outscored opponents by 162 runs in their first 107 games, then Shields will have a tough day on the job. If it's the A's from August and September, this is going to be a thrilling 1-0 game lost by the first team to have a pitch catch too much of the plate.
Given that, it's worth noting that the Royals have two of the game's faster players on the bench in Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore. Manufacturing a run might not only work, but could be the best idea depending on when Yost decides to go that route.
Prediction time!
Q: As the section header suggests, I'm going to ask you for your prediction now.
A: Behind Jon Lester, the A's win, advance and prepare to take on the division rival (and top AL seed) Angels in the AL Division Series.
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