Whether this was the right move or not is to be seen, but the Rays' intentions are clear.
David Price was never going to stay with the Rays forever. The team has been trying to move him since last winter, and while they seemed undecided about dealing him before the 2014 trade deadline, it was clear that he'd be gone eventually. If not in July, then during the winter, but sometime and for as much as the Rays front office felt they could get. They weren't going to let Price walk away with only a compensation pick to show for it, not when they could convert him into multiple pieces and clear his hefty salary from the books.
He's finally been dealt now, with the Mariners giving an assist to the Tigers in getting Price out of Tampa Bay. It's a move that does not quite surrender the present for the future, and one that is not solely focused on that future. The return for Price is hedging on both now and later. Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin can both help the Rays as they attempt to overcome their five-and-a-half-game wild card deficit, but if they don't enable the team to close that gap, they will still be around in the future to help with the next competitive Rays' club.
If the Rays felt their chances at October were excellent, Price would finish the season wearing their uniform. Instead, the AL's league-leader for innings, the 2012 Cy Young recipient, and owner of a 126 ERA+ over his 1,000 career innings since becoming a full-time starter in the majors, will try to help the Tigers win the World Series championship that's eluded them since 1984. If the Rays felt they had no chance whatsoever at the postseason, we probably also would have seen Ben Zobrist dealt elsewhere, along with other pieces like the perpetually underrated outfielder Matt Joyce. Instead, it's just Price heading out the door, and with Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin entering through it. Big moves are seldom so modest, or limited.
Smyly isn't Price, and probably never will be. He's been a productive big-league pitcher, though, dominating in a bullpen role for the Tigers in 2013 then succeeding as a starter this summer. Smyly has thrown 93 innings across 17 starts in the Tigers' rotation this year, with a 4.04 ERA and 7.7 strikeouts per nine. That's not a dominating showing, but it's solid, and should help keep the Rays from having to return to their earlier issues this season, when Cesar Ramos and Erik Bedard were both starting pitchers.
Chris Archer is suddenly the new Rays' staff leader. (Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)
The rotation still has Chris Archer, who is over his early season struggles and now boasts a 112 ERA+ after a dazzling 13-start, two-and-a-half-month stretch where he's posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out eight batters per nine. It still has Alex Cobb, who missed time with an abdomen strain but has since returned to help fuel the Rays' surge back towards relevancy. Jake Odorizzi has turned it on in his rookie season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 86 innings and 15 starts since his terrible April introduction. Jeremy Hellickson might never be what he used to be, but he's back in action, and should be a useful enough back-end starter if nothing else. As is, he's pitched well in his two starts since returning from elbow surgery, albeit on a limited pitch count.
Add Smyly, and it's not the rotation the Rays had with Price, but it's also significantly better than the one Price spent much of 2014 leading. With the exception of Matt Moore, who is missing the rest of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery, this is everyone that was supposed to be in the Rays' rotation, minus one Price and plus one Smyly. Having Hellickson and Smyly around should help replace Price to a degree, even if they can't completely replicate his excellence.
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As for Franklin, the Mariners had seemingly botched his career start and have juggled him between Triple-A and the majors constantly. He was useful in his rookie campaign in Seattle, posting a 95 OPS+ that, while not mind-blowing, will certainly play in the middle infield. He might not be relied on for many starts when the infield regulars are all around, but Joe Maddon has a way of finding the right at bats for the right players, and the 23-year-old Franklin is unlikely to be an exception. Given the success rates of the Mariners and Rays over the years, he has a much better chance of fulfilling his potential in St. Pete than in Seattle.
So, the Rays aren't giving up on 2014 even with the Price trade, but they didn't lock themselves into contention, either -- there was no reason to, as the odds are still somewhat long. Despite their play of late, they've barely picked up any ground in the standings: when the All-Star break ended, the Rays were 45-53 and seven games back of the wild card; the 7-2 run that they rattled off to start the second half netted them all of 1.5 games in the standings. That's one reason to give up Price, but maybe not enough of a reason to give up on the entire year.
That's one more reason a significant piece of this deal is so future oriented. In addition to Smyly and Franklin, they picked up Low-A shortstop Willy Adames, an 18-year-old batting .269/.346/.428. There's no guarantee he sticks at short, and projecting the bat of an 18-year-old that hasn't even left the lower minors is an impossible task, and silly besides. But he's a bet on the future that the Rays should be taking, especially on the position player side, where they have had less success as a franchise.
Maybe the Rays should have focused more on the present and held on to Price. Maybe they should have gone all in on 2015 and beyond in dealing him. This move balanced the two ideas, though, and keeps the Rays' chances in the present alive. It's a risky move, and one that will doubtless leave fans and analysts wondering about other offers that might have been on the table. Still, it's one that could pay off in the end. And hey, neither of Smyly or Franklin is going anywhere. For a team on the Rays' budget, and with its eyes on the near future, that counts for a lot.
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