The Tigers make the biggest of moves at the trading deadline, adding another Cy Young Award-winner to their pile of starting pitchers.
Athletics general manager Billy Beane showed his hand first Thursday, trading for Red Sox ace left-hander Jon Lester, giving up All-Star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to get the deal done. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski watched this, holding his poker face a few moments longer before one by one placing his cards on the table.
Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, and the final one -- a surprise -- David Price.
Four aces. The past three American League Cy Young Award winners. Quite a hand.
Think about it for a moment. It hardly seems possible in today's game to stock that kind of talent all in one place. Think about October. Think about facing Detroit in October. Pity the team that faces the Tigers in a five-game series in October and don't expect extending the series to seven games is going to look much better. Dombrowski's four aces staring down your best hand. Good morning. Good afternoon. Good evening. And good night.
Scherzer reigns as Cy Young for another two months. He probably will not repeat. However his ERA is 3.27, his strikeout rate remains high (28 percent) and the rate of walks (6.9 percent) seems a bit high but has been brought under control during the past two months.
Price's ERA of 3.11 speaks for itself, not quite so good as his Cy Young year but better than most. What's impressive is that he's striking out batters at a higher rate than ever (27.4 percent) while walking them at a lower rate than ever (3.3 percent). "Than ever" would include the year he was named the best pitcher in the AL.
Verlander could have won that year. He nearly did, falling a Jon Paul Morosi vote short of the award. His ERA climbed to 3.46 last year, a number few expected to see. This season, following surgery on his core muscles in January, the 2011 AL MVP has been even worse. His ERA is 4.79. His strikeouts are down. His walks are up. Pitching as he is today, Verlander may not even make a short-series rotation.
That's because the Tigers have Sanchez pushing him. His ERA may have risen to 3.57 this season but his FIP remains under three, despite a drop in strikeouts.
The Tigers' hand does look good.
But it's not that simple, is it? This is baseball. Teams that are favored to win lose. Pitchers that have no right to do so out-duel aces. The Tigers may not even be the favorites to come out of the American League playoffs, what with the strength of the Athletics.
How do you replace Jackson in center field? In order to build a rotation of that caliber, the Tigers had to give something up too. Just as the A's traded All-Star outfielder Cespedes to acquire Lester, the the Tigers gave up their starting center fielder, Austin Jackson, a starting pitcher, Drew Smyly, and an 18-year-old shortstop minutes before the non-waiver trade deadline in order to acquire Price.
Maybe the drop in talent isn't as steep as it seems, though. Jackson, who is headed to the Mariners, had not been enjoying his best season in Detroit, to be fair. His average (.270) and on-base percentage (.330) have fallen for three consecutive years, as had his power. Although he remains above average on the base paths, he's fallen off a bit there. And his once-beautiful defense in the outfield, which earned him the Fielding Bible's award in 2011, has dipped to at-best average and more than likely below.
Rajai Davis may slide into center field. He's batting better, is more of a threat in the base paths, though he is worse worse than Jackson in the outfield -- just not a bad as he would have been in years past. Fans of WAR will point out that Davis is either essentially Jackson's equal, as Fangraphs would have you believe, or is a not even a win worse, as Baseball-Reference would tell you. Another option for Detroit: Ezequiel Carrera, a speedy outfielder with a glove who has enjoyed success with the Tigers' Triple-A affiliate since coming over from the Indians. Batting .307/.387/.422 in Toledo, he has been called up in the aftermath of the trade.
The Tigers lag behind the Athletics in runs, but they lead them in average, on-base percentage and slugging. They gave up a lesser outfielder than the A's, too. The Tigers have a strong rotation and a couple of good arms at the back of the bullpen, Joba Chamberlain, Joakim Soria and Joe Nathan -- if he ever gets it together. It is going to be hard to score against the Tigers, and it will only get harder as the weather cools in October.
You can look at 2016 and beyond. The Tigers will not have Max Scherzer by then, probably will not have David Price and may not even have fifth starter Rick Porcello then either. With Drew Smyly gone to the Rays, you can look into the Tigers' future and see worries ahead. Dombrowski will worry about that when the time comes. Thursday's move was all about reaching for the 2014 pot.
Beane took his gamble, but with a month to make trades and two months before the playoffs, we probably haven't seen the last of either GM. The real winners may turn out to be fans watching these two teams clash in the playoffs.
from SBNation.com - All Posts http://ift.tt/1tzOX0E
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