The big 2015 UConn football guide: Bob Diaco is not a miracle worker

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1. If you're going to stink, you might as well stink with freshmen

Bob Diaco's first signing class, inked in February 2014, just weeks after he took the UConn head coaching job, consisted of just 16 players. It's just as well that your first class is small, as you haven't had time to get your bearings anyway. Instead of laying out a grand play -- this is where we're going to recruit, this is what we're going to sell, etc. -- you're just trying to secure previous commitments and figure out who's left.

A coach's abbreviated first class is often a space-filler before the real work. But for Diaco and the roster he inherited, it was a different story. Nine of the 16 played as true freshmen, even two offensive linemen.

Either Diaco wanted to make an imprint with "his" guys, or UConn was in desperate shape at running back, linebacker, cornerback, and offensive line, at least when it comes to filling out a two-deep. The former is optimistic, but the latter is more realistic.

TL;DR

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

2014 F/+ ranking and record: 119 (2-10)

5-year recruiting ranking: 77

Biggest strength: The run defense should be solid

Biggest question mark: The offense hasn't been good since 2009

Biggest 2015 game: Any hope of a bowl run will likely require a win over Navy (Sept. 26)

In one sentence: UConn bottomed out in Diaco's Year Zero, and it's going to take another couple of years to build back to where the Huskies were.

The program Diaco inherited had been flagging. Too good defensively to bottom out, the Huskies had regressed for four years. Since peaking at 29th in the F/+ rankings in 2009 (the year before their unlikely Fiesta Bowl run), they sank to 62nd in 2010, then lost head coach Randy Edsall to Maryland. They replaced him with veteran Paul Pasqualoni and fell to 67th, then 75th, then 97th.

The hire of Diaco made sense. The New Jersey product had spent the previous five seasons as Brian Kelly's defensive coordinator, first at Cincinnati and then at Notre Dame. Most of his experience had come in the Midwest, but in a conference that spans from Connecticut to Houston, geography is a relative term. He is a charismatic speaker -- just look at those eyes -- and he won the Broyles Award, given to the nation's top assistant, for the job he had done with Notre Dame's defense in 2012. He was a hot commodity, and UConn got him.

If it turns out that Diaco knows what he's doing -- how to recruit, develop players, put them in position to succeed -- then we'll look back at 2014 as a necessary Year Zero, a reset for a program in need of one. UConn plummeted from 97th in F/+ to 119th, won two games (one by three points to FCS Stony Brook), lost five games by 17 or more points, and lost at home to a winless SMU in the finale. There was almost nothing redeeming, but if you are going to stink, you might as well stink with a young team. And if you turn things around, no one's going to care that you started 2-10.

Plenty of coaches have turned things around after a poor start -- my go-to examples: Lou Holtz going 0-11 in his first year at South Carolina, George O'Leary going 0-11 in his first year at UCF -- and a few second-year coaches led lovely surges just last season. But one has to just look at conference mate USF to know that a turnaround after a bad first year isn't a given.

There's no reason to write Diaco off yet, but we're still in wait-and-see mode.

2. So how's recruiting going?

Here's our UConn blog

Connecticut Huskies blog The UConn Blog

"Look, the American Conference has got its name for a reason. It's a national footprint. You're playing teams in your conference in North Carolina, Louisiana, Florida, Ohio, Texas, Tennessee.

"If you don't recruit those states of those metro cities ... well, I guess it depends on resources, but we're definitely going into those cities. I researched direct flights from Hartford-Bradley to different cities. That's how we chose the cities we're going to go to the most. You're talking to kids about plane fare, accessibility."

According to the Rivals database, as of mid-July UConn had offered 32 2015 recruits from the state of New Jersey, 17 from Florida (the destination of many of those direct flights), 13 from Texas (hello, DFW), 11 from Illinois (hey there, Chicago), nine from Pennsylvania, and only seven from Connecticut.

When I spoke to Diaco for last year's Blueprint for a Rebuild piece, I was most curious about how he planned to reel in high-level talent in an area not known for having loads of high-level talent. His plan was to use Hartord-Bradley to his advantage.

It's a fool's errand to reach conclusions about a new coach's recruiting plan just one full class into his tenure, but I thought it would be interesting to see how Diaco performed in 2015 and where his signees came from.

It turned out to be local. Only one signee attended school in Connecticut, but four attended schools in New England, seven were from New Jersey, three were from New York, one was from Pennsylvania, and three were from the Maryland/Delaware/DC corridor. Within this group came some of the most-touted players: quarterback Tyler Davis, receivers Tyraiq Beals and Hergy Mayala, linebacker Nazir Williams, and five defensive linemen were given three-star designations by Rivals, the 247Sports Composite, or both.

In the end, only three came from outside: one from Illinois and two from Florida. If UConn begins to win in the coming years, it will be interesting to monitor if Diaco's national approach to recruiting begins to bear more fruit. But his immediate success will be determined by how well he can develop local talent.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 119
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
29-Aug	BYU	46	10-35	L	13%	-26.5	0%
6-Sep	Stony Brook	NR	19-16	W	16%	-22.8	45%
13-Sep	Boise State	21	21-38	L	24%	-16.7	1%
19-Sep	at South Florida	123	14-17	L	14%	-25.3	11%
27-Sep	Temple	67	10-36	L	11%	-28.9	0%
11-Oct	at Tulane	93	3-12	L	9%	-31.5	4%
23-Oct	at East Carolina	61	21-31	L	54%	2.6	35%
1-Nov	Central Florida	60	37-29	W	78%	17.9	85%
8-Nov	vs. Army	121	21-35	L	17%	-22.2	16%
22-Nov	Cincinnati	47	0-41	L	2%	-48.9	0%
29-Nov	at Memphis	41	10-41	L	17%	-22.3	0%
6-Dec	SMU	127	20-27	L	9%	-31.8	27%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	14.4	127	30.7	85
Points Per Game	15.5	125	29.8	86

3. Hope, then no hope

This was likely to be a poor season no matter what; UConn faced seven teams that would end up ranking in the F/+ top 70, and even if the Huskies held steady, they weren't going to win more than four games even if they scored a decent upset somewhere along the line.

They got the upset, cashing in on four interceptions to take down defending AAC champion UCF on Homecoming. They also lost three games to teams ranked 121st or worse in F/+. A midseason peak that featured a sudden offensive breakout against ECU and the aforementioned havoc against UCF quickly fizzled.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 15% (average score: Opp 26, UConn 15)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 3 games): 50% (average score: Opp 32, UConn 26)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 3 games): 9% (average score: Opp 36, UConn 10)

Following a frustrating loss to Army at Yankee Stadium -- a game in which UConn completed as many passes to Army (two) as Army did, and in which Army returned an interception 99 yards for a score with under 30 seconds left -- the Huskies basically folded, getting drubbed by Cincinnati and Memphis, then falling to a desperate SMU.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.78	102	IsoPPP+	75.8	120
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	32.7%	127	Succ. Rt. +	77.6	127
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.4	115	Def. FP+	97.0	101
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.2	126	Redzone S&P+	88.6	100
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.3		ACTUAL	28	+10.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	126	122	127	120
RUSHING	119	121	122	116
PASSING	113	122	126	113
Standard Downs		123	126	122
Passing Downs		115	125	99

Q1 Rk	128	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	127
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	110
Q4 Rk	109

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Chandler Whitmer					124	223	1522	11	8	55.6%	25	10.1%	5.5
Tim Boyle	6'3, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	43	82	335	1	3	52.4%	4	4.7%	3.3
Casey Cochran					17	31	171	0	1	54.8%	0	0.0%	5.5
Bryant Shirreffs (NC State)	6'1, 216	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444
Garrett Anderson	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Tyler Davis	6'3, 214	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8005

4. Got a quarterback?

There was a lot of shoddy quarterback play in the AAC, and by comparison, Chandler Whitmer wasn't too bad. The Illinois transfer provided a decent run threat, and his 56 percent completion rate was better than anybody else's on the team. When original starter Casey Cochran's career ended because of concussions, Whitmer oversaw an offense that was not any worse.

But when then-sophomore Tim Boyle began taking reps, UConn fans got a glimpse at the future, and the results weren't encouraging. Boyle looked decent against a solid Memphis but went 4-for-11 for 29 yards against SMU and finished the season with a paltry 83.5 passer rating.

With a new coordinator (Frank Verducci) and a new transfer (NC State's Bryant Shirreffs) in the mix, UConn will have an opportunity to reinvent both the offense and the requirements of the quarterback. The mobile Shirreffs was the leader for the job at the end of spring ball, but it appears Boyle, Tyler Davis, and recent JUCO commitment Garrett Anderson will have a chance to unseat him in August.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Ron Johnson	RB	5'11, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	114	429	3	3.8	3.6	30.7%	0	0
Max DeLorenzo	RB	5'11, 216	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7960	77	343	1	4.5	6.1	28.6%	2	2
Chandler Whitmer	QB				NR	51	222	2	4.4	3.3	45.1%	6	4
Arkeel Newsome	RB	5'7, 176	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519	47	188	0	4.0	4.1	38.3%	4	4
Josh Marriner	RB	5'9, 196	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	36	110	1	3.1	2.3	30.6%	1	1
Deshon Foxx	WR				NR	23	203	1	8.8	22.3	30.4%	4	3
Tim Boyle	QB	6'3, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	12	7	0	0.6	N/A	0.0%	2	2

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Geremy Davis	WR				NR	71	44	521	62.0%	22.8%	57.7%	7.3	-15	7.3	59.0
Deshon Foxx	WR				NR	54	30	384	55.6%	17.3%	72.2%	7.1	11	7.5	43.4
Noel Thomas	WR	6'1, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414	47	26	305	55.3%	15.1%	46.8%	6.5	-19	6.4	34.5
Dhameer Bradley	WR	5'10, 173	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8316	31	15	100	48.4%	9.9%	38.7%	3.2	-93	2.8	11.3
Sean McQuillan	TE	6'3, 247	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8074	27	16	158	59.3%	8.7%	55.6%	5.9	-39	5.9	17.9
Arkeel Newsome	RB	5'7, 176	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519	15	11	155	73.3%	4.8%	40.0%	10.3	25	8.5	17.5
Thomas Lucas	WR	6'2, 203	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7960	15	9	122	60.0%	4.8%	46.7%	8.1	12	8.4	13.8
Kamal Abrams	WR				NR	13	5	43	38.5%	4.2%	61.5%	3.3	-25	3.5	4.9
Josh Marriner	RB	5'9, 196	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	8	6	73	75.0%	2.6%	25.0%	9.1	2	10.2	8.3
Jazzmar Clax	FB	5'11, 249	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8496	8	5	34	62.5%	2.6%	50.0%	4.3	-27	4.6	3.8
Max DeLorenzo	RB	5'11, 216	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7960	6	5	42	83.3%	1.9%	66.7%	7.0	-16	6.7	4.8
Brian Lemelle	WR	5'10, 163	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8522	6	5	27	83.3%	1.9%	33.3%	4.5	-31	6.3	3.1
Alec Bloom	TE	6'6, 257	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8056	4	3	40	75.0%	1.3%	0.0%	10.0	5	NR	4.5
Ron Johnson	RB	5'11, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	4	3	20	75.0%	1.3%	25.0%	5.0	-15	7.6	2.3
Tommy Myers	TE	6'5, 250	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7818	2	2	8	100.0%	0.6%	0.0%	4.0	-15	NR	0.9
Tyraiq Beals	WR	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933
Hergy Mayala	WR	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126
Frank Battle	WR	6'5, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8076

5. All sorts of 2016 experience

The hire of Verducci is an interesting one, both because of Verducci's unique résumé -- 35 years of coaching experience, with everyone from the Iowa Hawkeyes (he was a graduate assistant when Diaco was a defensive back) to the Buffalo Bills to the Montreal Alouettes, and with no coordinator experience  -- and because of what he said about the offense.

His goal in spring ball was to introduce basic components, then let the talent on hand determine what his system will become. In a lot of ways, this makes sense. When building an offense from scratch, it's sensible to figure out what your personnel can do. But identity is important, and while it appears that Diaco prefers a mobile quarterback, saying "We'll see" doesn't lend a ton of confidence.

One assumes there will be quite a bit of running involved, however. Not only is Shirreffs a mobile option -- in limited action at NC State in 2013, he rushed 34 times and attempted just five passes -- but it seems UConn has more at running back than receiver.

Four backs return after carrying at least 36 times. Ron Johnson showed feature-back potential as a freshman, rushing 45 times in the final two games and going for 101 yards on 23 carries against SMU. Max DeLorenzo is a big option with nice open-field capabilities (when he gets to the open field). Arkeel Newsome showed efficiency potential as a freshman (and managed to fumble four times in just 58 touches). And while Josh Marirner didn't do much with his opportunities, he was still a three-star prospect.

Meanwhile, the only returnee who a) caught at least 10 passes last year and b) averaged at least 6.6 yards per target was Newsome. Noel Thomas had a nice late run of games, snaring 18 passes for 208 yards against UCF, Army, Cincinnati, and Memphis; he is almost by default the most proven receiver. Opportunity awaits any of the three-star freshmen.

Of all the players I just mentioned, by the way, everybody but DeLorenzo is scheduled to return in 2016. This unit could develop into something, but it's going to take a while.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	85.5	2.32	2.7	32.6%	53.6%	27.6%	67.7	5.6%	11.5%
Rank	115	123	109	118	120	126	120	83	117

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Alex Mateas	C					28
Gus Cruz	LG					19
Tyler Samra	RG	6'2, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8305	13
Richard Levy	LT	6'6, 308	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	12
Dalton Gifford	RT	6'4, 307	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	11
Andreas Knappe	RT	6'8, 310	Jr.	NR	NR	7
Ryan Crozier	C	6'4, 294	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7811	3
Paul Nwokeji	LT	6'6, 301	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	0
Kyle Bockeloh	C	6'3, 298	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	0
Trey Rutherford	LG	6'5, 296	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7808	0
Tommy Hopkins	LG	6'6, 308	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7995	0
Kyle Schafenacker	OL	6'3, 280	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8425	0
Brendan Vechery	OL	6'6, 299	So.	NR	NR	0

6. Size isn't an issue

Your line stats aren't going to be good when you're blocking for freshmen and a variety of quarterbacks, but UConn's were particularly poor: the Huskies ranked 109th or worse in all but one of the stats above, and the "strength" (83rd in standard downs sack rate) wasn't much of one.

That's a shame because it seems like there might be potential. Five players return with starting experience (46 career starts), and of the 11 players listed above, five were three-stars. And size isn't an impediment, with 10 of the 11 going at least 290. Plus, as is the running theme, eight of the 11 are scheduled to return in 2016.

I would assume this big line ends up doing a lot of work in blocking for Shirreffs, Johnson, and company, and protecting Shirreffs in a lot of play-action situations. But really, the goal for every unit on this offense has to be figuring out what it's going to be and who's going to become a reliable contributor in 2016.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.78	26	IsoPPP+	104.4	55
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.8%	74	Succ. Rt. +	94.4	91
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.7	99	Off. FP+	95.0	119
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	87	Redzone S&P+	101.6	57
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.8		ACTUAL	15.0	-1.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	50	67	96	55
RUSHING	71	58	88	29
PASSING	37	93	95	84
Standard Downs		72	106	47
Passing Downs		71	61	85

Q1 Rk	83	1st Down Rk	70
Q2 Rk	44	2nd Down Rk	22
Q3 Rk	110	3rd Down Rk	94
Q4 Rk	47

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.1	2.80	3.65	39.3%	66.0%	21.0%	51.9	2.7%	3.2%
Rank	100	44	96	70	58	42	124	110	121

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Julian Campenni	NG	6'0, 302	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7780	12	26.5	3.9%	5.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	DT	6'4, 298	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7961	12	24.5	3.7%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mikal Myers	NG	6'1, 326	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8139	12	24.0	3.6%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Kenton Adeyemi	DE	6'4, 287	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	12	20.0	3.0%	5.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Reuben Frank	DE					12	19.0	2.8%	4.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
B.J. McBryde	DT					12	17.5	2.6%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Cole Ormsby	DE	6'3, 257	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900	10	12.5	1.9%	5.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Cameron Stapleton	DE	6'4, 246	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7956	9	6.5	1.0%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
David Ryslik	DE	6'3, 292	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8292
Kevin Murphy	DT	6'2, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8150
Philippe Okounam	DE	6'5, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8118
Connor Freebom	DE	6'6, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7973

7. All the components of a good run defense ...

Size? Check. The top four tacklers on the line averaged 6'3, 303, and each of the top five linebackers was at least 225.

Play-making ability? Certainly. Six linemen recorded at least three tackles for loss, as did four linebackers, and UConn ranked 42nd in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line).

Depth? I think so -- seven linemen and five linebackers made at least 12.5 tackles.

In theory, there was a lot to like about UConn's run defense. But the Huskies ranked 88th in Rushing Success Rate+, meaning opponents were able to stay ahead of the chains. UConn kept big plays in check, allowing only 10 rushes of 20-plus yards (ninth in FBS), but the efficiency wasn't what it seemed it should be.

Of course, the run defense was still leaps and bounds ahead of the pass, which featured one of the nation's worst pass rushes and scant play-makers in the secondary.

The defense wasn't the problem, but it was still one of UConn's worst in recent years. It will be interesting to see what experience can do on the ground, though. Five of last year's seven linemen and four of five linebackers return, while the second string could feature more young upside than in any other area of the UConn defense.

I like the linebackers and the defensive tackles, even if there's a lot of work to be done at end, and I figure UConn's run defense will improve.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marquise Vann	LB	6'0, 226	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8104	12	82.5	12.3%	7.0	0.5	0	2	1	0
Graham Stewart	LB	6'1, 228	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8913	12	67.5	10.1%	10.5	2.0	0	0	2	0
Jefferson Ashiru	LB				NR	9	33.5	5.0%	3.5	0.5	1	0	0	0
Junior Joseph	LB	6'1, 242	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8306	11	32.5	4.8%	4.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jon Hicks	LB	6'2, 238	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8124	12	13.5	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Vontae Diggs	LB	6'2, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8322	12	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Carrezola	LB	6'3, 248	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	6	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Steg	LB					10	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Omaine Stephens	LB	6'3, 227	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	9	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Walsh	LB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7860
Jalen Stevens	LB	6'3, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8309
Nazir Williams	LB	6'3, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8190
William Richardson	LB	6'3, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7988

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Andrew Adams	S	6'0, 197	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7694	12	80.5	12.0%	0.5	0	4	4	1	1
Obi Melifonwu	S	6'3, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8189	11	63.5	9.5%	3.5	0	0	3	0	0
Jhavon Williams	CB	5'10, 194	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7988	12	33.0	4.9%	0	0	0	7	2	0
Byron Jones	CB					7	20.0	3.0%	0	0	2	4	0	0
Jamar Summers	CB	6'0, 177	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7981	12	19.0	2.8%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Junior Lee	S	6'0, 209	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	12	18.5	2.8%	1	0	0	1	0	0
John Green	CB	5'10, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8069	12	8.5	1.3%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Brice McAllister	CB	5'11, 193	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7865	5	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Javon Hadley	CB	5'10, 165	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8248	5	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jeremy Claflin	S	6'1, 212	Sr.	NR	NR	8	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ellis Marder	S	6'1, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7913	5	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Floyd	S	6'0, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8186
John Green	CB	5'10, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8069
Aaron Garland	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8141
Marshe Terry	DB	6'4, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7983

8. All sorts of 2016 experience, part 2

Safeties Andrew Adams and Obi Melifonwu combined for four tackles for loss, four picks, and seven breakups, and returning corners Jhavon Williams, Jamar Summers, and John Green combined for 14 breakups and one interception. That's really not bad considering how long quarterbacks had to find open receivers, but UConn's iffy pass defense went beyond the pass rush. There were a few too many big plays along the way, as well.

That Adams and backup safety Junior Lee are the only seniors, though, is a good thing. If Diaco and coordinator Anthony Poindexter can figure out how to get pressure on passers, this should be one hell of an active unit in 2016.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Justin Wain	6'3, 209	Jr.	74	38.8	4	30	17	63.5%
Bobby Puyol	5'10, 173	Jr.	6	35.0	0	3	2	83.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Bobby Puyol	5'10, 173	Jr.	44	56.8	5	2	11.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Bobby Puyol	5'10, 173	Jr.	19-22	5-8	62.5%	4-6	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Arkeel Newsome	KR	5'7, 176	So.	36	20.3	0
Brian Lemelle	KR	5'10, 163	Jr.	5	23.2	0
Deshon Foxx	PR			10	8.1	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	101
Field Goal Efficiency	83
Punt Return Efficiency	105
Kick Return Efficiency	107
Punt Efficiency	78
Kickoff Efficiency	35
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	78

9. Decent components?

UConn's kick coverage unit performed well, leading the Huskies to a No. 35 kickoff efficiency ranking despite Bobby Puyol only booting a touchback on one of every nine kicks.

That's the entire list of strengths. Puyol was better on longer field goals than shorter ones -- he was 4-for-6 over 40 yards but only 5-for-8 under 40 and 19-for-22 on PATs -- and while punts from Justin Wain were high, they weren't far. And aside from one Deshon Foxx punt return touchdown, returns were pretty much non-existent.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
3-Sep	Villanova	NR
12-Sep	Army	121
19-Sep	at Missouri	20
26-Sep	Navy	44
2-Oct	at BYU	46
10-Oct	at Central Florida	60
17-Oct	South Florida	123
24-Oct	at Cincinnati	47
30-Oct	East Carolina	61
7-Nov	at Tulane	93
21-Nov	Houston	73
28-Nov	at Temple	67

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-15.2% (90)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	90 / 77
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-13 / -0.4
2014 TO Luck/Game	-5.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (6, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	2.2 (-0.2)

10. Life after the reset button

There were second-year surges last year -- Sonny Dykes at California, Bret Bielema at Arkansas, Dave Doeren at NC State, Skip Holtz at Louisiana Tech, Sean Kugler at UTEP. On average, these five went from three wins and an F/+ ranking of 103rd in 2013 to seven wins and 51st in 2014. None of the five was expected to do as well as he did. That's the Year Zero effect.

Is there potential for a similar rise at UConn? Probably not. If the running game catches hold, then there's possible for improvement into the 90s or so on offense, and if the run defense improves as I expect, then maybe the defense will creep back into the 50s or 60s in Def. S&P+. Average that out, and maybe this becomes a top-80 team.

But that's too big a leap to count on, especially considering how bad the offense has been for going on five years now. The odds are much better than UConn improves to around 100th, and while that's something you can build off of, it won't result in many 2015 wins, not with only four opponents who ranked worse than 73rd last year.

I like Diaco, and I think he could still get UConn back to a bowl-level team, but this is a multi-year rebuilding project.

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