Teams interested in trading for Adrian Peterson should exercise caution because there are plenty of red flags.
Adrian Peterson will likely go down as the best running back of his generation and looks to be Hall of Fame bound after racking up more than 10,000 rushing yards and six trips to the Pro Bowl in his first seven NFL seasons. He already ranks 28th all-time in rushing yards and 14th in rushing touchdowns, and he'll look to continue to add to both totals.
Still, there are reasons for any interested team to take caution when considering a trade with the Minnesota Vikings to acquire Peterson.
There's one really good reason why it would be exciting for any team to trade for Peterson: He's Adrian Peterson. He has six seasons with more than 1,200 rushing yards, seven seasons with double-digit touchdowns and after a year away from football, he should instantly improve any team's running game.
The long-term affects of trading for Peterson might not make it the smartest move, though.
Why trading for Peterson doesn't make sense
1. Age sneaks up on everyone
Peterson played in just one game during the 2014 season, so his year away from the wear and tear of the game likely tacked a little longevity on his career. Even still, he's a running back who is now 30 and, historically, that's when the downhill slide begins.
The best season ever by a running back 32 or older came from John Riggins, who had 1,347 yards in 1983 at age 34. That's the 163rd best single-season rushing total. Of the 162 seasons that best that mark, only nine came from 30 or 31 year old running backs. The other 153 marks were set by players 29 or younger.
Peterson is a freak athlete who hasn't showed signs of slowing and his year off surely helped, but he's still someone with more than 2,000 career rushing attempts, a number only 37 players have ever reached. He's also someone with ACL, MCL and LCL tears all in his past.
2. Peterson's cap hits are a nightmare
When the Philadelphia Eagles signed DeMarco Murray to a five-year, $40 million deal, they got a steal compared to the numbers headed Peterson's way. While Murray will count no more than $9 million against the salary cap in any year during his five years with the Eagles, Peterson is set to count $15.4 million against the Vikings' cap in 2015, $15 million in 2016 and $17 million in 2017.
No other running back in the NFL is slated to count more than $10 million in 2015.
Perhaps, Peterson will be generous enough to restructure his contract after a trade is made, but there's no reason why he should. If he refuses to restructure, a team that just acquired Peterson via trade isn't going to release him.
3. Trades cost compensation
Most of the teams that are in need of a running back chose not to pursue Murray in free agency. If they had, those teams could have acquired a running back without giving up a draft pick or player in a trade to do so.
It's tough to gauge what the cost of trading with the Vikings would be, but there is a price and that price is more than free. Teams would be sacrificing the opportunity to add young talent in the NFL Draft and instead add a 30-year-old running back, who could hit a significant decline soon.
4. There's some baggage
Child abuse scandals aren't the best thing for a team's public relations, and any team signing Peterson will have to take on responsibility for the running back's previous actions. He is no longer suspended and pleaded no contest to misdemeanor reckless assault, so his legal issues and the punishment for them are in the past.
Even so, the baggage is still there and there could be some backlash headed to any team willing to trade for a player with that kind of scandal in his rear view mirror.
Trade candidates
Even with all those concerns, Peterson is still one of the NFL's best players and his availability will pique some interest around the league. A report from the Pioneer Press in Minnesota listed six teams as candidates for a trade: The Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Diego Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Other reports have listed the Oakland Raiders as a possibility.
Dallas Cowboys
There are plenty of reasons to point to the Cowboys as a perfect destination for Peterson. If any team is looking to add the Texas native, it should probably be a postseason contender and, as Andrew Brandt of Sports Illustrated points out, the stars look to be aligning:
There are plenty of rumored suitors, including the Cardinals and Raiders, but the actions of the Cowboys lately seem almost too obvious to connect the dots. The team 1) created $12.8 million of cap room with the latest Tony Romo contract restructure, and Peterson would cost $12.75 million; 2) watched DeMarco Murray sign with their biggest rival while barely lifting a finger; and 3) discussed the potential of Peterson as a Cowboy on their website (there was a competing viewpoint, but approval had to come from above to allow this video). Adding the report of Peterson talking to Jerry Jones on the phone last year about his interest in playing for the team, the link seems apparent.
But even with those signs seemingly indicating a high level of interest between the two parties, Cowboys executive Stephen Jones is adamant that the team isn't interested in trading picks for veteran players. With Greg Hardy already on the team, the Cowboys might also be hesitant to bring in another player who was part of a high-profile abuse scandal in 2014.
Likelihood: 2/10
Arizona Cardinals
Of the seven candidates that have been mentioned as possibilities, the Cardinals are the only other team that earned a spot in the postseason. They managed to do so with the NFL's second-worst rushing attack and just six rushing touchdowns all year.
The Cardinals have a solid amount of cap room and draft picks in all seven rounds. The team has a compensatory pick in the seventh-round pick as well that can't be traded, but with eight picks, the money to keep Peterson and the need to add a top rusher, Arizona is a very logical landing spot.
Likelihood: 4/10
San Diego Chargers
Given all the Philip Rivers drama, the Chargers have more on their mind than just adding a running back and being ready for the postseason. If San Diego elects to keep Rivers, bolstering its 30th-ranked rushing attack would likely be a priority and if the team goes with Marcus Mariota instead, giving the rookie some help in the backfield would make sense as well.
Five years after taking Ryan Mathews in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, the Chargers allowed him to walk in free agency, so the team's options in the backfield are Donald Brown, Branden Oliver and Danny Woodhead, who is returning from a serious ankle injury.
The team has plenty of cap space and would have even more if Rivers is dealt, but could be on the verge of a more patient and long-term rebuild due to its quarterback situation.
Likelihood: 3/10
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have an exciting, young running back in Devonta Freeman, but could create a dynamic rushing attack by pairing him with a bigger veteran like Peterson. In Seattle, Dan Quinn had the aid of a grinding rushing attack on offense to help his suffocating defense and the Falcons could attempt to immediately recreate that in Atlanta.
While the Falcons have plenty of cap room, it was one of the more quiet teams in free agency, so the room to add a player like Peterson is still there.
That said, the Falcons experienced first-hand the dangers of adding an elite running back on the tail end of his career. The team signed Steven Jackson a few months before his 30th birthday and just released him after two disappointing seasons.
Likelihood: 2/10
Jacksonville Jaguars
Toby Gerhart was a disappointment for the Jaguars in 2014, so what better way to fix the problem than to add the player that Gerhart sat behind in Minnesota? Pairing Peterson with Denard Robinson would take even more pressure off Blake Bortles, who already received Julius Thomas as a new toy in the offseason.
Even after the big splurge in free agency, the Jaguars are among the teams with the best salary cap situation and adding Peterson wouldn't break the bank at all. The team is two years into a very patient rebuild though, and adding Peterson would be a strange left turn from adding youth to attempting to swing for the fences.
Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley said on Tuesday that there is no truth to the reports of the team being interested in Peterson and said it's not a direction the team would go.
Likelihood: 1/10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It would be shocking if the Buccaneers don't use the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft to add a quarterback and the first step to helping out a new passer is to add tools around him. Tampa Bay already has some pass catching weapons with Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, so using the team's copious cap space to address the running back position would make sense.
Neither Doug Martin nor Bobby Rainey was even able to eclipse 500 yards rushing in 2014 and the Bucs finished with the 29th-ranked rushing attack. Adding Peterson would likely help the team fix that problem in a hurry and provide a rookie quarterback with a safe option in the backfield.
Likelihood: 4/10
Oakland Raiders
Like the Jaguars, the spending in free agency didn't change the fact that the Raiders still have plenty of money to spend. No team was worse than the Raiders at running the ball in 2014 and they elected to allow Darren McFadden to walk after seven seasons with the team.
The Raiders have a promising, young back in Latavius Murray, but he doesn't have much experience of being a workhorse back in the team's offense and struggled when he had to take over as a starter late in the year. Coupling him with Peterson could help Murray return to the form that shredded the Chiefs for 112 yards and two touchdowns on four carries just before he became the full-time starter.
However, like the Falcons, the Raiders saw the dangers of adding a running back with wear and tear when they signed Maurice Jones-Drew. In his only season with the team, Jones-Drew finished with 96 rushing yards and retired after the season at age 29.
Likelihood: 2/10
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