A pair of Euros are the favorites at the Open Championship, but there are plenty of red flags for two of the hottest and best players in the world.
In just a couple days, Justin Rose jumped four players in the eye of the oddsmakers to become the co-favorite to win the 2014 British Open. A second straight win will do that, and Rose's victory late Sunday at the Scottish Open vaulted him up the oddsmakers' board and into a tie with Rory McIlroy at 14/1. A few days ago, McIlroy was the sole favorite at 10/1 but Rose's record and two consecutive victories were too hard to ignore. The Englishman will certainly have his fair share of support at Hoylake this week, and it's a perfect chance to back-up that 2013 U.S. Open with another major.
Rose may be the hottest golfer in the world, but that doesn't necessarily make him a great bet this week. Ironically, Britian's best golfer has a pretty horrible record at his national championship. His best result came during the 1998 breakthrough, when he finished T4 as an amateur and whipped up the natives into a hyping frenzy that the next great English golfer had arrived. The story has been documented over and over, but things didn't go smoothly for Rose when he turned pro just days after that dazzling result. He completely fell off the map, his talent unrealized until the last four or five years when he became a force on both sides of the Atlantic.
But even this newer, world-class incarnation of Rose has not been able to make a run at the Open Championship. His career results to date are mix of underwhelming and n/a, his best finish a T12 back in 2007. Here are his results in the 16 years since his first wildly successful Open appearance:
| 1998 | 4th (amateur) |
| 1999 | Missed Cut |
| 2000 | DNP |
| 2001 | T30 |
| 2002 | T22 |
| 2003 | Missed Cut |
| 2004 | DNP |
| 2005 | DNP |
| 2006 | DNP |
| 2007 | T12 |
| 2008 | T70 |
| 2009 | T13 |
| 2010 | Missed Cut |
| 2011 | T44 |
| 2012 | Missed Cut |
| 2013 | Missed Cut |
For someone so talented, and with so many career achievements, that's a startlingly bad record. Rose should be at home on the links of the Open rota, but for whatever reason, this tournament has never suited him.
On top of that history, Rose also comes to a venue this week with which he's totally unfamiliar. When he met with us after his Quicken Loans National win at Congressional a couple weeks ago, he was quick to point out that he had never played Royal Liverpool and "didn't know the course at all." It was a bit surprising to hear such a prominent English player say that about a course that has such prominence and history in the rota. When the Open was held here in 2006, he was still off wandering in search of his game and not good enough to qualify for and play in major championships. His scouting report from the last time the Open was held here and he was watching on TV:
I just remember it being burnt out, really warm, people eating ice cream and Tiger winning. That's about my memory. I guess I've got some work to do.
Rose undoubtedly got some reps in at the course last week before heading up to Aberdeen and winning the Scottish Open, but a little more familiarity and comfort on the course would be reassuring for those taking the betting favorite.
So despite those back-to-back wins, Rose has some red flags as the co-favorite. McIlroy is not without his issues. He's also a UK native who doesn't prefer the links golf of an Open Championship. He's got a high-ball hitting game that can get blown away in the links wind, and is better suited to the parkland courses of America. But that game held up at Kiawah's Ocean Course three years ago during that runaway PGA Championship win.
After those two co-favorites, it's a list of all the familiar big names who have a history of contending at the Open. Tiger Woods, who is almost always the favorite in every event he enters, is 18/1 behind four others. It's odd to not see Tiger in that top spot, but there was no way the oddsmakers could put him there with just two shaky competitive rounds since his late march microdiscectomy back surgery. That he's not on top gives you an indication of just how wide open this typically unpredictable major could be. Here are the updated odds with just 24 hours to go until the start of the 143rd Open (via Bovada):
| Player | Odds |
| Justin Rose | 14/1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 14/1 |
| Adam Scott | 16/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 16/1 |
| Tiger Woods | 18/1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 20/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 20/1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 25/1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 25/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 33/1 |
| Jason Day | 33/1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 33/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 33/1 |
| Bubba Watson | 40/1 |
| Lee Westwood | 40/1 |
| Luke Donald | 40/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 40/1 |
| Angel Cabrera | 50/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 50/1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 50/1 |
| Ian Poulter | 50/1 |
| Paul Casey | 50/1 |
| Thomas Bjørn | 50/1 |
| Zach Johnson | 50/1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 66/1 |
| Ernie Els | 66/1 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 66/1 |
| Jason Dufner | 66/1 |
| Jim Furyk | 66/1 |
| Francesco Molinari | 80/1 |
| Hunter Mahan | 80/1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 80/1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 80/1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 80/1 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 80/1 |
| Mikko Ilonen | 80/1 |
| Robert Karlsson | 80/1 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 80/1 |
| Webb Simpson | 80/1 |
| Bill Haas | 100/1 |
| Brendon Todd | 100/1 |
| Graham De Laet | 100/1 |
| Harris English | 100/1 |
| Jonas Blixt | 100/1 |
| Joost Luiten | 100/1 |
| Kevin Na | 100/1 |
| Matteo Manassero | 100/1 |
| Nick Watney | 100/1 |
| Patrick Reed | 100/1 |
| Shane Lowry | 100/1 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 100/1 |
| Billy Horschel | 125/1 |
| Branden Grace | 125/1 |
| Chris Wood | 125/1 |
| Danny Willett | 125/1 |
| Gary Woodland | 125/1 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | 125/1 |
| Padraig Harrington | 125/1 |
| Ross Fisher | 125/1 |
| Ryan Moore | 125/1 |
| Thongchai Jaidee | 125/1 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 150/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 150/1 |
| Charley Hoffman | 150/1 |
| Chris Kirk | 150/1 |
| Edoardo Molinari | 150/1 |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 150/1 |
| Gonzalo Fdez-Castaño | 150/1 |
| John Senden | 150/1 |
| KJ Choi | 150/1 |
| Marc Leishman | 150/1 |
| Marc Warren | 150/1 |
| Michael Hoey | 150/1 |
| Paul Lawrie | 150/1 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | 150/1 |
| Richard Sterne | 150/1 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 150/1 |
| Brian Harman | 175/1 |
| Kristoffer Broberg | 175/1 |
| Brendon De Jonge | 200/1 |
| Darren Clarke | 200/1 |
| George Coetzee | 200/1 |
| Gregory Bourdy | 200/1 |
| J B Holmes | 200/1 |
| Kevin Stadler | 200/1 |
| Kevin Streelman | 200/1 |
| Russell Henley | 200/1 |
| Ryan Palmer | 200/1 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 200/1 |
| Stewart Cink | 200/1 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 200/1 |
| Ben Curtis | 250/1 |
| Ben Martin | 250/1 |
| Boo Weekley | 250/1 |
| Brendan Steele | 250/1 |
| Chris Stroud | 250/1 |
| Erik Compton | 250/1 |
| Justin Leonard | 250/1 |
| Matt Every | 250/1 |
| Matt Jones | 250/1 |
| Matthew Baldwin | 250/1 |
| Oliver Fisher | 250/1 |
| Peter Uihlein | 250/1 |
| Yong Eun Yang | 250/1 |
| Cameron Tringale | 300/1 |
| Chesson Hadley | 300/1 |
| David Howell | 300/1 |
| George McNeil | 300/1 |
| Roberto Castro | 300/1 |
| Scott Stallings | 300/1 |
| Shawn Stefani | 300/1 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 400/1 |
| Brett Rumford | 400/1 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 400/1 |
| Billy Hurley III | 500/1 |
| Bradley Neil | 500/1 |
| Byeong-Hun An | 500/1 |
| D.A. Points | 500/1 |
| Hyung-Sung Kim | 500/1 |
| Jin Jeong | 500/1 |
| Justin Walters | 500/1 |
| Tom Watson | 500/1 |
| Victor Riu | 500/1 |
| Ashun Wu | 750/1 |
| Chris Hanson | 750/1 |
| David Duval | 750/1 |
| Dawie Van Der Walt | 750/1 |
| John Daly | 750/1 |
| Juvic Pagunsan | 750/1 |
| Mark Calcavecchia | 750/1 |
| Oscar Floren | 750/1 |
| Nick Faldo | 1000/1 |
| Sandy Lyle | 1000/1 |
from SBNation.com - All Posts http://ift.tt/1oHvh40
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