Alternate headline: Here's how to double down on a stupid prediction.
Some brief housekeeping before talking about Nelson Cruz and the Seattle Mariners: Last year, I wrote about Cruz being a free agent booby trap. To be fair, this was when he was asking for four years and $60 million, which he didn't get. Still, the Orioles took a chance and were rewarded with an excellent season. They were right; I was wrong. They are smart; I am dumb.
Cruz signed with the Mariners for a reported four years, $57 million. On the surface, it seems like a good fit. As much as it's tempting to write how Cruz was a product of right-hander friendly Camden Yards, he actually hit better on the road last season. He was one of the few power bats available for money (and a draft pick), and he's going to a team in desperate need of a power bat. It seems like the perfect fit.
Reminder of how Mariners DHs have hit since Edgar Martinez retired in 2004:
Mariners' DH production (OPS)
2014: .567
2013: .781
2012: .597
2011: .650
2010: .609
2009: .747
2008: .608
2007: .746
2006: .656
2005: .723
It's as if there were a cosmic punishment handed down for employing the greatest DH in baseball history for a decade. The rules of baseball allowed the Mariners to find anyone -- literally anyone -- who could do nothing but hit, regardless of how they did anything else related to baseball, and the team came away with Mike Fontenot every year, for better and for worse, often worse.
So it made sense for the Mariners to acquire the best DH on the market, even if it meant giving a long-term contract to a player over 30. Which means it's time to talk about how spectacularly this will fail.
This isn't a sequel really, but a continuation of themes that were rudely interrupted by Cruz's magnificent 40-homer season. Last year's dumb column included headers that mentioned his fielding (not an issue) and concern trolling about his inability to take PEDs (which sure didn't bother him last year). This year's dumb column will have just two headers about why Cruz is a free agent booby trap again.
Age
Technically, it's "age" combined with "type of hitter," but we'll shorten it to just "age." Cruz will turn 35 on July 1 next year. That means he's technically playing his age-34 season next year, but only because his birthday is a day after the cutoff for determining a player's baseball age. Fine, we'll call him 34.
He's also something of a hacker -- low walk totals, inflated strikeout totals. He strikes out about three times for every walk he takes. Which is fine if the production is still there. We're not awarding style points, here. It's a red flag, though. Players without plate discipline tend to age poorly. Here's a list of players who had a 30-plus homer season with an on-base percentage below .340 in their 20s. There have been 94 of them, from Joe Gordon to Sammy Sosa. It's a who's who of players who fell off a cliff, like Dan Uggla, Mark Reynolds, and Andruw Jones.
Only 28 of those players had one season with a single offensive win above replacement after they turned 34. Only 15 of them had more than one. Some of those players were Hall of Famers, like Reggie Jackson and Andre Dawson. If Cruz glides gently into his mid-to-late 30s after a career of low-OBP dinger-mashing, he'll be an anomaly.
(The 30+ homer/sub-.340 bar was set there because that's the typically good Cruz season. He did it regularly with Texas, and he did it last year with Baltimore. Play around with the search however you'd like, though. The general idea -- that players with iffy plate discipline and power tend to decline quickly when their fast-twitch reflexes desert them -- stands.)
The Death Cloud that hangs over Safeco Field and chokes a hitter's will to live
This one is a little more abstract, and I don't exactly have scholarly evidence to support it. I do know that when the Mariners sign one of the best hitters in baseball (Robinson Cano) it works out. I also know that when they find a homegrown player who is unaffected by The Death Cloud, they should keep him at all costs (Kyle Seager). Here a mostly complete list of free agent hitters, though, signed by the Mariners to get significant playing time over the last 10 years:
- Corey Hart
- Robinson Cano
- Raul Ibanez
- Carlos Guillen
- Adam Kennedy
- Jason Bay
- Miguel Olivo
- Jack Cust
- Chone Figgins
- Mike Sweeney
- Russell Branyan
- Brad Wilkerson
- Jose Guillen
- Carl Everett
It's not just the number of failures on the list that stand out, but how most of them were never heard from again. Almost all of those specific failures have to do with age, injuries, and generally dubious levels of talent. Collectively, though, it's an unbelievable list. The Death Cloud got to all of them. The Mariners were the last stop for almost everyone up there, and that's not including fliers on players like Sean Burroughs and Corey Patterson. The organization doesn't grade out much better for trades, either, with Michael Morse and Logan Morrison being two recent examples. Kendrys Morales wore a respirator for a season, apparently, but he took it off because he got cocky. Cloud got 'im.
Cloud'll get 'em all.
That isn't to suggest that the Mariners should just stop trying to acquire hitters because Chone Figgins stunk years ago. That's ridiculous. But considering their recent history of offensive upgrades, it's impossible to look at "34 years old," "career .328 OBP," and "Safeco Field" and remain optimistic. If you want evidence, refer to the previous section. If you want gut feeling, here it is.
Cruz was one of the sketchiest free agents on the market for anyone, but there's something about his pairing with the Mariners that seems particularly ominous. If it's any consolation to Mariners fans, though, look how wrong most of us were about Cruz last year. Of course, that grouping of "most of us" includes the Mariners, too. That decision to stay away from Cruz last year cost the Mariners a season's worth of production, scores of millions, and possibly a postseason berth.
The Mariners had no choice but to go up in this plane, and we all understand that. We can still point out that the wings look like they've been caulked on. Usually when a hitter signs a multi-year contract, the idea is that the backend of the deal is supposed to be a wasteland by design, with the team overpaying for short-term production. With Cruz and the Mariners, though, I'm pessimistic about 2015, much less 2018.
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