Welcome to our weekly college football gambling column. It's called COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING. Today, let's talk about the first of five power conferences: the ACC.
The ACC is the power league with the most ridiculous conference odds, because it includes Florida State. And the Seminoles might not be a bad bet even at steep odds -- if you shop around. In some spots, FSU has odds around 1/3 or 1/4 to win the league. But at Bovada, they are 4/11, which is a better value.
Shopping around to find value is important. Still, I don't necessarily like tying up my money this far ahead on odds that tall, so that will be a pass, as I am already betting FSU using another wager (see below).
Division wagers
I happen to think that the Coastal Division is even more tightly clustered than some think. In this situation, money can be made by finding the teams that are lesser, but not significantly so, and finding where they are being overrated. I've found two instances in the Coastal: Duke and Pitt.
At Olympic Sportsbook, Duke can be had to win the Coastal Division at +1500, which is double the price being offered on the Blue Devils by some other casinos. Duke has a limited ceiling, but if nobody else in the division steps up, their brand of mistake-free football could lead them to the title. No Florida State or Clemson on the schedule helps, too. That same sort of scheduling also helps with the bet of Pitt at +2500 (Bovada). Some books have the Panthers at +1800, so +2500 is a nice price for a team with limited depth but quality starters at many positions.
And if you can find Virginia Tech at 4/1 or better, the Hokies might be worth a play for the Coastal title.
Team win totals
Win total wagers are based solely on the regular season. No championship games, bowl games, or Playoff games. If I don't mention a team, it means that I feel Vegas has the number pegged relatively well or I don't have a great feel for the team.
Florida State Over 11 wins (-195, 5Dimes): I give the Seminoles a 50 to 55 percent chance of going undefeated, a 35 to 40 percent shot to win exactly 11 games, and a 10 percent chance to be 10-2 or worse. I'll pay the premium to bet over 11, as opposed to taking the risk with the over 11.5 offered at some shops. Figuring out the likelihood, and thus the value of a push, is an important part of wagering.
Louisville Over 8 (-115, Bovada): Bobby Petrino can put together an offense. Charlie Strong left him with a pretty nice-looking roster. The offensive coaching will make up for the loss of Teddy Bridgewater, and Louisville insiders feel better about the defense than I expected. Louisville has a similar chance as FSU to go over/push on its number.
More ACC
Syracuse Under 5.5 (+120, Bovada): I'll take the plus odds on Syracuse missing out on a bowl this year, and the main reason is the schedule. Syracuse could easily be 2-4 on October 11 after playing Central Michigan on the road, Maryland, Notre Dame (neutral site), Louisville, and Florida State. And then the difficult road games begin, including trips to Clemson, Pitt, and Boston College. I am not a believer in QB Terrel Hunt, and the Orange may have some issues at defensive tackle.
Wake Forest Under 3.5 (+145, Bovada): It's hard to see Wake Forest winning four games, yet is there enough value here? There is.
Wake Forest might have the worst defensive line of any major-conference team. There are questions at quarterback, offensive line, and receiver. Wake Forest should be an underdog in at least 10 of its 12 games (Gardner-Webb and Army being the exceptions), so this is a bet against the Demon Deacons pulling two upsets even if they hold serve twice as favorites.
Miami Under 8.5 (-135, Olympic): This is a value play, as some books are requiring bettors to pay -135 to bet Under 8, not even 8.5. There is value in the hook.
As it is, Miami could be the best team in the Coastal. But the schedule is not friendly. An opening game at Louisville before starting QB Ryan Williams will have returned from a knee injury is just bad timing. There is no guarantee that Miami will field even an average defense. Florida State and a Thursday night contest at Virginia Tech won't be easy, and roadies at Georgia Tech and Nebraska are also on deck. This team could get to 8-4, but 9-3 is a fairly big jump, and something I'm willing to lay -135 won't happen.
Then again, I also liked Auburn's talent but hated its schedule going into 2013 ...
Virginia Tech Over 8 (+101, Pinnacle Sports): An elite defense, an offense that can't get any worse, and a very friendly schedule (no Florida State, Clemson, or Louisville from the Atlantic Division). That's the formula for Virginia Tech to get to 9-3 in 2014. Pitt and Duke are not especially tough places to play on the road, and as the saying goes, "defense travels."
The swing game for the Hokies that could be the difference between 8-4 and 9-3 is the road game at North Carolina. Win that one, and even 10-2 might be within reach.
All wagers are for entertainment purposes only.
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