Teams as talented as Arizona generally don't miss the playoffs two years in a row. Can they take a step forward in 2014? We break down the fantasy implications.
Fifteen teams had positive point differentials in 2013. Twelve teams made the playoffs. Those two lists, you might imagine, have a fair amount of overlap -- 11 show up on both, with only Green Bay making the playoffs on a negative point differential.
That leaves four teams with a positive point differential and a lack of playoff time:
Dallas Cowboys, +7 point differential, 8-8 record
Pittsburgh Steelers, +9 point differential, 8-8 record
Detroit Lions, +19 point differential, 7-9 record
Arizona Cardinals, +55 point differential, 10-6 record
Of course, it's no coincidence that the Cardinals were also the only 10-win team (heck, the only nine-win team) to miss the playoffs. We've learned by now that point differential is in many ways more indicative of performance than record; a team can stumble into a 10-6 record far more easily than it can stumble into a plus-55 point differential.
In short, the Cardinals were, by just about any measure, the best NFL team to miss the playoffs in 2013.
The easy explanation is their division. The NFC West, just a few years removed from sending a 7-9 team to the playoffs, totaled 42 wins in 2013. Divisions should average 32 wins (excepting ties); the NFL's second-best division last year, the AFC West, totaled 37. The NFC West was leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the league.
In addition to having a higher standard of record just to make the playoffs, that stronger division also means the Cardinals were stuck with a harder schedule: only four teams had a harder strength of schedule in 2013, and none of them had more than seven wins. Their opponents' winning percentage was .531; New Orleans, at .516, was the only playoff team whose average opponent had a winning record.
Yup, that division was a killer.
What it means is that the Cardinals in 2013 were good, but -- with neither Seattle nor San Francisco appearing likely to drop off much, if at all -- they needed to upgrade in the offseason. And, considering the Cardinals had the No. 5 fantasy defense in 2013, those upgrades by and large needed to come on the offensive side.
So how'd they do? And will any improvements be reflected in the fantasy numbers? Let's look:
Quarterback
Kurt Warner's last year in Arizona was 2009. In the years since, Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall, Richard Bartel, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer all played quarterback for Arizona before Carson Palmer arrived last year. Combined, their average season over the three interim years: 3,534 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 21 interceptions.
In other words, the Cardinals really needed a quarterback. And it seems they got one last year. It just took half a season.
Palmer wasn't great in the first half. He averaged only 10.25 fantasy points and threw 14 interceptions against 10 touchdowns through the team's first eight games. In the second half, though, he became the quarterback the Cardinals wanted. He averaged 15.875 fantasy points in that time, and that 10:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio flipped to 14:8, with four of those eight interceptions coming in a single game against Seattle's dominant defense. He finished the season as the No. 17 fantasy quarterback, but that second-half fantasy average would have vaulted him to ninth over a full season, ahead of guys like Colin Kaepernick and Tony Romo. While he set a career high in interceptions, with 22, he also set a career high in passing yards, with 4,274.
So what changed?
Honestly, not much. The biggest difference I could find in the team's offense from half to half in 2013 was the increased use of running back Andre Ellington (more on him later). A more competent running back can only help a quarterback, but the better guess is that Palmer just got used to Arizona, which he had described as the most complicated offense he'd been a part of.
In 2014, he's now used to the Arizona system. He also will be playing behind an improved offensive line, with Jared Veldheer signed from Oakland as a free agent. Palmer was sacked 41 times in 2013, eighth-worst in the NFL.
Palmer is firmly a part of the lower tier of QB2s, in the range of guys like Alex Smith, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco. He is 34, and while the elite quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are all older -- tend to age well, the next step down are the ones who fade away, either because they don't perform as well or because teams opt for a younger choice. The Cardinals have already started moving that direction, using their fourth-round pick in the draft on Logan Thomas out of Virginia Tech.
Considering Palmer's age, moderate penchant for the turnover and multitude of games against those stout NFC West defenses, he's a low-end QB2 at best. With the right matchups, he'll be a fully capable bye-week fill-in, but as is, I rank him No. 19 at the position entering the season.
Running Backs
Through the Cardinals' first seven games last year, Andre Ellington didn't have more than seven carries in a single contest. Through the team's last nine games -- with the exception of a game missed to injury -- he never had fewer than nine. His usage in the passing game didn't change much, but Ellington became a full-on running back as his rookie season wore on.
This isn't a secret, as Ellington has been one of the most popular "sleeper" running back picks in fantasy as the 2014 season draws near. Head coach Bruce Arians has almost said he intends to give Ellington 25-30 touches a game, which is insane and won't actually happen, but it does portend increased usage to some level, which is really the point.
As I said, "25-30" is insane and dumb and not going to happen. That's a 400-touch-a-year pace for a 5'9", 199-pound second-year running back. But Arians knows that, and I'll bet all sorts of dollars he doesn't actually believe Ellington will touch the ball that often; it's just a euphemism for "dude's our No. 1." So the team will need a backup running back to change pace, work third downs, that sort of thing.
In light of Rashard Mendenhall's retirement, the team has two primary options for that backup RB spot: Stepfan Taylor, also a second-year back, and Jonathan Dwyer, brought over as a free agent from Pittsburgh this offseason.
Dwyer was a nothing-special back in his four years in Pittsburgh, topping out at 623 rushing yards in a season and scoring only two touchdowns in four seasons. He was a question mark to even make the team in 2012, then was cut in 2013 before being re-signed after LaRod Stephens-Howling tore his ACL. He's just a guy -- little upside, but maybe a few touchdowns just because these things happen.
Taylor was similarly uninspiring in limited action in 2013. He had more than five carries in only one game -- 14 carries against Atlanta -- and that yielded only 38 yards. He had 186 yards and no scores on the season, with only 44 touches. He's another smaller back, a poor man's Ellington.
Yes, Dwyer and Taylor will see the field a fair amount in 2014. There's just no way Ellington will be used that heavily. But neither one appears likely to be worth much in fantasy unless Ellington gets hurt.
Ellington, though, could be the prize. He's the popular sleeper pick, and I'm right there with everyone. I have him as my No. 14 running back -- mid-20s overall -- ahead of guys like Ben Tate, C.J. Spiller and DeMarco Murray.
Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald entered the league in 2004. Since, he's played in 156 of a possible 160 games, topped 1,000 receiving yards six times, topped 900 eight times, and scored at least 10 touchdowns five times. He's also led the Cardinals in receiving yards eight times.
That means Fitzgerald has been eclipsed twice by a Cardinal teammate. The first time came in 2006, when he was limited to 13 games and 946 yards, and Anquan Boldin had 1,203 yards. The second was last year, when his 954 yards were bested by the 1,041 yards of second-year teammate Michael Floyd.
By virtue of Fitzgerald's 10 touchdowns to Floyd's five, Fitzgerald did still score more fantasy points than his teammate, 146 to 128. But the point remains that Fitzgerald is lining up beside another legitimate weapon for basically the first time since Boldin left town.
Fitzgerald turns 31 at the end of August, but he's shown no real sign of slowing down. He's still an elite receiver, and elite receivers age so much better than elite running backs. There's no reason to think Fitzgerald is at or nearing any cliff.
Floyd, after sporadic usage in his 2012 rookie year, entered 2013 competing with Andre Roberts to be the team's No. 2 (I didn't do rankings last year, but ESPN had Floyd as WR45, Roberts as WR52 - they were close). Through two games (82 and 22 yards for Floyd, 97 and 36 for Roberts, no scores for either), nothing was clear.
And then the fog lifted. Roberts didn't even reach 10 yards again until Week 7, while Floyd was a regular part of the action. By Week 11, when Floyd had 193 yards and a touchdown, Roberts was an afterthought.
This year, there's no question. Roberts is gone, replaced by free-agent acquisition Ted Ginn and third-round draft pick John Brown. Both could contribute (maybe more in the return game), but neither is likely to steal many targets from Floyd (or Fitzgerald, but we knew that).
Though he was bested by yards last year, Fitzgerald is still the Cardinals receiver to target. I slot him as my No. 11 receiver (No. 27 overall), while I have Floyd at WR23, in the mid-50s overall. Floyd, though, will have the occasional huge game that will vault him into sporadic WR1 territory. Good luck figuring out when those games are coming, but if he's your last receiver or your flex play, he'll win you the occasional week.
Tight ends
Tight end is usually the afterthought position in these analyses. Either a team has an elite tight end (the Saints and Jimmy Graham), so you just say "Yeah, he's good, draft him high," or a team has a tight end that doesn't stand to do much (the Chiefs and Travis Kelce), so you say "Eh, probably not worth much." Either way, these are always the shortest sections.
While the easiest answer to the Cardinals' tight-end situation is that there isn't one likely to be worth starting in fantasy, I still kind of have to dive. Because the Cardinals have as many as four different tight ends who could be the team's No. 1 next year, which has to be the most of any team.
First off is Rob Housler. He's been with Arizona since 2011, but has never had even 500 yards in a season, and scored his first career touchdown last year. He had only one double-digit fantasy game last year.
Next is Jake Ballard. He had a good 2011 with the Giants -- 604 yards, four touchdowns -- before tearing his ACL. He missed 2012 and much of 2013, but had a couple scores down the stretch last year. If the guy that was pretty good in 2011 is still in there, he has potential. But we're now in the third year since that guy showed up, so who knows?
Then there's John Carlson. I think we all forgot about him entirely last year before Kyle Rudolph got hurt in Minnesota, at which point Carlson had a handful of playable fantasy games. It was enough to get the Cardinals to sign him to a two-year deal in the offseason.
Lastly, there's Troy Niklas, the team's second-round pick in the draft. He's talked about as a pass-catching tight end, in the vein of Heath Miller, who Bruce Arians had when he was in Pittsburgh. He has the highest ceiling of the group, with the question being whether he'll be allowed to realize that potential right away.
You could scramble the team's four tight ends in just about any order and I couldn't quibble too much. The primary moral of the "Arizona tight end" story is that you probably don't want to be relying on any of the group for much of anything. Personally, I ranked Ballard, with the best mix of potential and track record, at No. 28 at the position, the only Arizona tight end I ranked in the top 32. I'd probably have them Ballard, Niklas, Carlson, Housler 1-4, but again, you could go any order, so long as you aren't counting on these guys.
Miss out on any of the team pieces so far? Catch up here:
| AFC EAST | NFC EAST | |
| Buffalo Bills | Dallas Cowboys | |
| Miami Dolphins | New York Giants | |
| New England Patriots | Philadelphia Eagles | |
| New York Jets | Washington | |
| AFC NORTH | NFC NORTH | |
| Baltimore Ravens | Chicago Bears | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Detroit Lions | |
| Cleveland Browns | Green Bay Packers | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Minnesota Vikings | |
| AFC SOUTH | NFC SOUTH | |
| Houston Texans | Atlanta Falcons | |
| Indianapolis Colts | Carolina Panthers | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | New Orleans Saints | |
| Tennessee Titans | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| AFC WEST | NFC WEST | |
| Denver Broncos | Arizona Cardinals (Howdy-do) | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | |
| Oakland Raiders | Seattle Seahawks | |
| San Diego Chargers | St. Louis Rams |
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