Your team by team guide to each club's biggest contract hurdles, potential free-agent defections, and desperate, aching, bleeding needs.
Los Angeles Angels (98-64)
Biggest free agent: Jason Grilli
Biggest contract decision: Garrett Richards' first year of arbitration
Bleeding need: A reliable starting pitcher, because C.J. Wilson is only being paid like one at this point.
The Angels had the best record in baseball in 2014, but it still wasn't enough to advance in the playoffs. The lineup is essentially as good as it can realistically be, with the Angels once again producing one of the top offenses in the game, but the rotation needs help. Jered Weaver is no longer an ace, Garrett Richards hasn't been doing this long enough to be depended upon as one, and while Matt Shoemaker is similarly interesting, he was never as good as he was in 2014 at any other time in his seven-year career. Weaver, Richards, Shoemaker, and Hector Santiago can form an excellent rotation if things go right again, but something needs to be done about C.J. Wilson, who was the worst he's ever been as a starter from June onward. If he regains his form, great, but with all the other questions in the rotation, adding some depth in case he does not wouldn't be the worst offseason plan for a team that's otherwise settled.
Baltimore Orioles (96-66)
Biggest free agent: Nelson Cruz
Biggest contract decision: Steve Pearce will require a massive raise in arbitration after a year as the O's best hitter
Bleeding need: For Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado to show up healthy and play well all season.
The Orioles won the AL East easily because they destroyed the rest of the division. They posted a .618 winning percentage against divisional opponents -- a 100-win pace -- and did all of it despite injuries, down seasons, or both from multiple key players. Wieters' season ended with Tommy John surgery, Machado had a second knee surgery, and Davis was a league-average hitter a season after leading the world in dingers. If the three of them come back strong in 2015, and the Orioles are able to bring back the bat of Nelson Cruz and see Steve Pearce build on his breakout 2014, then the lineup is going to be phenomenal. The rotation could also see an upgrade if Kevin Gausman continues on his current breakout trajectory, which would see him as staff leader of a team that already has the well above average arms of Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, and Wei-Yin Chen in place.
Detroit Tigers (90-72)
Biggest free agent: Victor Martinez. Or Max Scherzer. Give it a minute, okay?
Biggest contract decision: J.D. Martinez earned himself a mega raise with his 2014, just in time for his first year of arbitration.
Bleeding need: You saw the playoffs, right? Or any part of the regular season? It's the bullpen.
Max Scherzer is the Tigers "biggest" free agent if you're talking about who is going to end up pulling in the most money of any of them this winter, or who will end up on top of a ranked list of available free agents. His time with the Tigers is at an end, though, given the way negotiations between the two sides have gone on in the last year, so Victor Martinez is sort of like the 1A biggest free agent because of it. The Tigers could use Scherzer, but they have other great starters, especially after acquiring David Price and his 2015 in July. Detroit is not overflowing with other bats, especially if Torii Hunter heads elsewhere in his own free agency, so Martinez -- who was significantly better at the plate than Miguel Cabrera in 2014, by the way -- is in the "need" bin, unlike Scherzer.
Other than that, the primary concern is the bullpen, which will likely require some luck, in-house development, or a dump truck full of money backed into Andrew Miller's driveway to fix. Possibly all three of those things.
Kansas City Royals (89-73)
Biggest free agent: James Shields
Biggest contract decision: The declining Billy Butler has a $12.5 million option for 2015, and the thrifty Royals have a $1 million buyout.
Bleeding needs: Someone who can hit a baseball 400 feet or more regularly.
Losing James Shields will be terrible for the Royals, but they still have Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy to fight over the top spot in the rotation, a solid mid-rotation game in Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie, and potential options like 2014 draft pick (and World Series reliever) Brandon Finnegan for the fifth and final spot. They aren't flush with cash, but they'll have some room to sign another mid-range pitcher if they decide to. They could sure use a hitter, though, as Alex Gordon is a lonely man who is only occasionally comforted by Lorenzo Cain. They've got the defense, they've got the pitching, but another hitter would go a long way towards making 2014 more than a one-time deal.
Oakland Athletics (88-74)
Biggest free agent: Jon Lester
Biggest contract decision: Will the A's pay for Jeff Samardzija's final year of arbitration, or use him as the centerpiece of a trade meant to reload the farm?
Bleeding need: Is the goal 2015? Health and a pitcher. If it's 2016 and beyond? Prospects.
Jon Lester will sign elsewhere. Jason Hammel is a free agent. Jeff Samardzija could be dealt in order to bring back some much-needed kids to Oakland. Jed Lowrie, Luke Gregerson, Jonny Gomes, Alberto Callaspo, and Geovany Soto are also all free agents as well, and while their talent and production vary, that's a lot of roster spots that need to be dealt with. The next A's team might not look all that much like the past few, and that's going to be the case whether general manager Billy Beane spends his winter reloading for a 2015 run or uses those months to build towards a more distant, brighter future. Health will also be a key, as pitchers like A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker return from surgery to fill in these now-open spots in the rotation. There's still a lot of talent in Oakland, and while a 2015 playoff spot isn't guaranteed, it's certainly not an impossibility.
Seattle Mariners (87-75)
Biggest free agent: Kendrys Morales, by default.
Biggest contract decision: Whether to tender Austin Jackson, who has fallen off in two straight years, a contract.
Bleeding need: Hitters. Plural.
The Mariners had the second-best ERA+ in the American League in 2014. That's good! They had a team OPS+ of 95 completely undo all of that goodness, though, causing them to just miss out on their first playoff appearance since 2001 -- for added perspective on just how long ago that was in Baseball Time, 2001 was Ichiro Suzuki's rookie season. A 95 OPS+ wasn't the very worst in the AL, but it was close enough: the Astros, Red Sox, Rangers were all as bad or worse, and they will have top-10 picks in the 2015 draft, and the Royals came in last in the AL at the not-far-behind 91 mark. The Mariners should still be able to pitch in 2015 -- possibly better, if Tajiuan Walker can show up healthy and productive from the start. They won't be able to hit unless they finally get Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager some help, though -- those two were the only Mariners hitters who were both healthy and above-average at the plate in 2014.
Austin Jackson asks the musical question, "Where have all the good times gone?" (Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images).
Cleveland Indians (85-77)
Biggest free agent: Jason Giambi. Wait, really? Huh.
Biggest contract decision: Picking up Mike Aviles' $3.5 million option. Listen, blame Cleveland for this being boring.
Bleeding need: The Indians had good pitching and good hitting, but neither was good enough. A little more of each through transactions and rebounds would go a long way.
The Indians have the makings of a quality rotation, with Cy Young-caliber starter Corey Kluber heading up a group that includes Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, and Carlos Carrasco. Bauer was just okay in 2014, but it was his first full season. Salazar was a mess in April, finishing the month with a 6.04 ERA, but struck out over a batter per inning over the last three months while posting a 3.50 ERA. Carrasco pitched his way out of the rotation early, but once a spot opened up in August, he grabbed hold and didn't let go, striking out 10 batters per nine with a 2.67 ERA over 14 starts. If they can grab a depth/insurance arm to round things out, and either add a hitter or get bounce-back seasons from Jason Kipnis and Nick Swisher, the Indians might have something going in 2015.
New York Yankees (84-78)
Biggest free agent: You'll find this answer in paragraph form below.
Biggest contract decision: Ivan Nova was a mess in the short time he pitched in 2014, and is up for another round of arbitration following Tommy John surgery.
Bleeding need: Somebody under 30 in their lineup.
Stephen Drew, Hiroki Kuroda, Chase Headley, Brandon McCarthy, and David Robertson could all be lost to free agency. Drew's 2014 was poor, but he's an obvious replacement for Derek Jeter at short given his normal abilities. There isn't room for Headley at third if the returning Alex Rodriguez goes there, but it sounds as if the Yankees prefer A-Rod to spend his time at DH, so maybe Headley will be back, too. McCarthy is what the Yankees needed in their rotation in 2014, and beyond as well, as there are no fewer questions surrounding it now than there were in July. Kuroda is either a Yankee or heading back to Japan -- they could use him as well if he's staying stateside. Robertson wasn't Mariano Rivera, but asking that of anyone would be unfair: he was David Robertson, and that's a fine pitcher. He might work for someone else, though, depending on the closer contract offers headed his way in a couple of weeks.
The Yankees need a usable CC Sabathia back. They need Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann to appear slightly more Braves-like, the form that drew the Yankees to them to begin with. Michael Pineda needs to be both on the mound and helpful. More is -- and should be -- expected of both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran. Masahiro Tanaka's elbow needs to stay attached for yet another year. David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, Chris Capuano, and Chase Whitley combined for 55 starts 332 innings: that can't happen again. They can solve a few of these problems with money, as they tend to do, but as for the players already paid for? They're just going to have to hope the upcoming summer goes a lot better than the one that's now behind them.
Marcus Stroman sings for only the lonely (Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports).
Toronto Blue Jays (83-79)
Biggest free agent: Melky Cabrera
Biggest contract decision: Brett Lawrie finally reached arbitration, but hasn't been in danger of getting rich there for a few years now.
Bleeding need: They mostly need their younger arms to take a step forward and fix the rotation.
The Blue Jays were close in 2014. The lineup remained their greatest asset, even with Edwin Encarnacion missing time with injury. The pitching just wasn't there (again): Mark Buehrle started out great but remembered he was 35 and in the AL East as the season wore on, R.A. Dickey was useful but again nothing like he was with the Mets, and while Marcus Stroman showed promise, he wasn't in the rotation all season. Drew Hutchison could be something -- this was his first full season in the bigs as a starter, and he was just 23. J.A. Happ is probably replaceable at this point; he'll be 32 in 2015 and hasn't been even average since 2010. They have prospect Aaron Sanchez, who could be the guy replacing Happ, and if he develops as expected that's a solid enough rotation. It might not be good enough if the rest of the AL East reloads, though.
Tampa Bay Rays (77-85)
Biggest free agent: Joe Maddon. He's also their only free agent.
Biggest contract decision: Alex Cobb is entering arbitration and will see a hefty raise, but whether Jeremy Hellickson remains on the Rays in year two of his eligibility is likely the more significant discussion.
Bleeding need: Find out where the pre-2014 version of Evan Longoria went.
The Rays lost Joe Maddon, and that's a problem, but bench coach Dave Martinez could take over as manager: he spent enough time with Joe to know what works in and for Tampa Bay. Fixing what was broken will be the job of whoever takes over for Maddon, and that's a list that includes Evan Longoria after his worst season and Wil Myers' sophomore flop that produced a 77 OPS+. The rotation lost David Price but added Drew Smyly in the same transaction, the revolving mix of role players now has Nick Franklin in it, and one of Jake Odorizzi or Jeremy Hellickson is likely to convincingly latch on to the fifth starter spot before too long. There is still a whole lot of talent here -- 2014 was a surprise disappointment for a reason -- but it needs to play up to the levels it's supposed to in order for that to mean anything.
Chicago White Sox (73-89)
Biggest free agent: Please remember "biggest" is relative, because for the White Sox answer is Matt Lindstrom.
Biggest contract decision: Tyler Flowers' arbitration? There has to be something more exciting than that, come on.
Bleeding need: A reliable back-end of the rotation and some shiny new hitters.
Adam Dunn is no longer on the White Sox, and they weren't much of a run-scoring team even with him around. Jose Abreu is legit, but after that, it's a couple of pretty good bats in Conor Gillaspie (if he keeps it up) and Adam Eaton. Alexei Ramirez is plenty good with the stick for a shortstop, and his glove is wonderful, but there's just not a whole lot here past these three. Avisail Garcia has some potential, but it's not something you pin all your dreams on, which is also the most you can say about most of the younger White Sox in the organization. The first half of the rotation is lovely, at least, with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. The Sox won't go anywhere if the present-day version of John Danks is their third-best starter, though: they either need to spend some money this winter and stop messing around with the Hector Noesis of the world, or they just need to keep collecting promising youth where they can in the hopes it will eventually form a watchable product. Both plans have obvious downsides.
Chris Sale signals for more pitching help and a club soda (Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports).
Boston Red Sox (71-91)
Biggest free agent: Burke Badenhop. Listen, it was Jon Lester and then it was Koji Uehara, but they traded and re-signed them, respectively.
Biggest contract decision: The Sox can extend Yoenis Cespedes, deal him to fill another need, or stick with him for 2015 and hope he's worthy of a qualifying offer and compensation pick a year from now.
Bleeding need: Joe Kelly is their most consistent starting pitcher as of this writing.
The Red Sox lineup might already be fixed -- granted, that's a big ol' maybe. Mookie Betts could be a starting outfielder in 2015, and late-season pickup Rusney Castillo will be there as well. Either Yoenis Cespedes or some combination of Shane Victorino, Allen Craig, and Daniel Nava will take up the other spot, and shortstop Xander Bogaerts showed promise once again at the end of the year after a rough summer of adjustments. There is room to tinker -- maybe Chase Headley at third base, for instance -- but most of the lineup is already locked in. The rotation... well, it needs some work. Clay Buchholz could be an ace again! He could also be garbage. The Sox should go into 2015 thinking he'll be garbage, so that anything more than that is a bonus: That means coming out of the winter without Joe Kelly being the best or second-best starter on the team. Trading for Cole Hamels is a potential option -- expensive in prospects, but it's there -- as is offering buckets of money to Jon Lester once more. James Shields is probably more in their price range for years. With their farm system, they could attempt to pry someone established but under team control away as well.
There are pitching prospects on the horizon -- real ones, not the maybe starters, maybe relievers of 2014 -- but they probably won't be ready until later in the year. If the Sox want to rebound, they'll likely need to make at least one huge move on the mound.
Houston Astros (70-92)
Biggest free agent: Jesse Crain is their lone free agent.
Biggest contract decision: Dexter Fowler is in his last season before free agency, so the temptation to trade him is there if he can't be extended before 2015 begins.
Bleeding need: Mostly patience and some smart free agent deals, as 2015 is likely to be another step on the path to respectability.
The Astros didn't lose 100 games in 2014, but that's mostly a symbolic victory: they still dropped 92 of their 162 contests. There are pieces here that are starting to shine through, with Jose Altuve blossoming, Fowler returning to form, and both of Chris Carter and George Springer showing promise that helps ease at least a little of the merited concern around their futures. Jonathan Villar and Jonathan Singleton need to show more, though, Springer needs to survive a second season in which pitchers now know of his whiff-happy ways, and the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh need to be quality pitcher for more than just the one time. If the Astros can grab some useful talent from other teams and the free-agent market like they did a year ago, they'll move a little further towards .500, and a little further away from a period in team history everyone is ready to forget.
Minnesota Twins (70-92)
Biggest free agent: Matt Guerrier is their lone free agent.
Biggest contract decision: Whether a team that's clearly rebuilding should hold on to or trade closer Glen Perkins should be a point of discussion, but whether it will be is another question entirely.
Bleeding need: For someone to stop the Twins from giving money to bad pitchers to replace their less expensive bad pitchers.
The Twins had a pretty average lineup in 2014 -- every starting player in it had an OPS+ of at least 102, with Danny Santana's 130 leading the way. It took some time to get to that point, though, with the struggles of Aaron Hicks and others dragging down the offense prior to the Twins settling in, but there's some potential there for greater things, especially if Joe Mauer plays more like he's capable of going forward. The pitching, though, was a disaster again. Betting on Phil Hughes to pitch better after leaving a hitter-friendly park worked out splendidly, but it would have been more productive to just set fire to the money the Twins handed to Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, and Ricky Nolasco. There are pitching prospects in the system, but they don't matter for 2015 purposes, and the Twins probably aren't in a position to be spending large quantities of cash on any of this winter's free agent pitching class, either, not unless they do a better shop researching their purchases than they did the last two years.
Texas Rangers (67-95)
Biggest free agent: Alex Rios, whose option the Rangers declined.
Biggest contract decision: Is it time to trade Adrian Beltre to someone who can't afford Pablo Sandoval or Chase Headley, or will the Rangers need him sooner than later?
Bleeding need: A do-over on 2014.
The Rangers are still loaded with talent. They have Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, Elvis Andrus, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, and a farm system that still has worthwhile pieces in it. They need those players to not only show up healthy in order to win, though, they also need them to play like they're expected to. Choo was a disaster from mid-June on, and missed the end of the season with elbow trouble. Fielder, after finishing four of his last five seasons with 162 games played -- with 161 in the other -- underwent neck surgery after 42 power-less contests. Andrus' glove is amazing, but it would help if he hit just a little bit. Adrian Beltre was fantastic and no ill word can be spoken of him, as usual.
Derek Holland and Martin Perez spent most of the year injured, and Darvish ended it that way. The Rangers could use some new talent, both from within and from free agency or trades, but they mostly need the players who were already there, the ones who were supposed to lead them to playoffs in 2014, to bounce back strong.
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