Fantasy football rankings, Week 5: Defense/Special Teams

This year has proven more and more than defenses are wildly unpredictable. They definitely aren't units you can clog your roster with.

Through two games, Carolina's defense had 25 fantasy points. They now have 10. That seems like a magic trick. The Colts have -5 points in Weeks 1 and 2. They now have 24. Tennessee has gone from 15 in Week 1 to -6 in Week 4, with progressively fewer points each week. Tampa Bay has gotten better each week. Seattle is supposed to be the best defense, and they have a negative game on their resume. New Orleans, the No. 13 defense off the board in fantasy drafts, sits at -4 for the season. The Giants and Vikings, No. 28 and No. 29 taken in fantasy drafts (aka untaken in fantasy drafts), are tied for 12th-best so far.

It's early yet, of course, and a lot can and will change. I'm not drawing final conclusions here, but the top five quarterbacks in fantasy drafts are still in the top 11 at the position. Of the top five tight ends, three are still in the top 10. Running back and wide receiver are different, of course, with so many other names to deal with. But of the top five fantasy defenses to start the season, three currently rank 24th or worse. Flipping it around, only one of the current top five fantasy defenses was drafted higher than 15th.

The moral, as always, is not to burn a draft pick on a defense. But the other thing, now that the drafts are long finished, is not to be locked into a defense, either. In the War Room chats and other places, I get questions like, "I don't love my defense's matchup this week, so I'm going to drop SKILL PLAYER X WHO COULD ACTUALLY MATTER for a one-week defense; sound good?"

In almost every instance, the answer to that question is, "Nope, doesn't sound good." If you have a defense you don't feel confident running out there every time they play, just drop that defense and move on. A defense that you feel you need to hold onto is almost always a defense you just need to play no matter what.

This week, with Miami the only fantasy-relevant defense on a bye, you have who you have. Miami's unit has been good so far, so if you have them, I'm comfortable picking up another for the week. But that's it. In a 10-team league, 11 defenses need to be owned for Week 5. In a 12-team, 13 defenses. You get it.

I'll boil my point down to this: For an individual football player, there are an insane amount of variables affecting their week-to-week performance. For a defense, multiply that by 11, and that's before we consider the special-teams part of the equation. With some exceptions, we just can't be confident enough in our opinions to (a) take them early, or (b) know enough about their weekly performance to do that "hold on the bench" thing I mentioned above. We just don't.

Now, to our ranks for the week, where we try anyway:

Defense/special teams rankings, Week 5

(DK: Daniel Kelley; DC: Dan Ciarrocchi; JD: John Daigle; SK: Scott Kaliska)

Rank	Consensus	Opponent	DK	DC	JD	SK
1	Seattle Seahawks	@WAS	1	1	2	1
2	Detroit Lions	BUF	3	3	3	3
3	Cincinnati Bengals	@NE	2	5	1	5
4	San Diego Chargers	NYJ	6	2	7	2
5	San Francisco 49ers	KAN	5	10	5	7
6	Denver Broncos	ARI	9	4	17	6
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	@JAC	4	6	24	4
8	Cleveland Browns	@TEN	14	8	9	8
9	New England Patriots	CIN	12	15	6	12
10	Carolina Panthers	CHI	17	9	11	9
11	Philadelphia Eagles	STL	7	7	25	11
12	Houston Texans	@DAL	11	14	12	13
13	Dallas Cowboys	HOU	19	18	4	16
14	Green Bay Packers	MIN	25	11	14	10
15	Baltimore Ravens	@IND	13	22	8	18
16	Buffalo Bills	@DET	8	16	21	17
17	St. Louis Rams	@PHI	10	23	13	22
18	Indianapolis Colts	BAL	15	13	--	15
19	New York Giants	ATL	20	21	10	23
20	New Orleans Saints	TAM	--	12	23	14
21	Kansas City Chiefs	@SF	18	20	16	21
22	Arizona Cardinals	@DEN	16	24	15	24
23	Chicago Bears	@CAR	24	17	19	29
24	Tennessee Titans	CLE	23	19	22	20
25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@NO	22	--	18	--
--	Minnesota Vikings	@GB	--	--	20	--
--	New York Jets	@SD	21	--	--	25
--	Washington	SEA	--	25	--	--

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