The Chiefs have a shot to usurp the Broncos in the division race this Sunday night and keep pace for a first-round bye in the playoffs. Retired NFL defensive end Stephen White previews the big game going down in Kansas City this week.
Just a couple of weeks ago I previewed the Broncos/Patriots game as one that might end up deciding home-field advantage in the playoffs. Two weeks later and after the Broncos lost on that Sunday, Denver faces off against a Chiefs team in a game that may decide the AFC West division champion.
The Broncos (8-3) have already beaten the Chiefs (7-4) in Denver in Week 2, by a final score of 24-17. A win Sunday would give them a sweep and put them in the driver's seat to win the division. For the Chiefs, a win at home would split the series and give them the same record as Denver, leaving division championship up for grabs. One thing is for sure, with the way the Patriots are playing neither the Broncos nor the Chiefs can afford to fall any further back in the playoff race with only five weeks left in the regular season.
1: Will the Broncos continue to ride C.J. Anderson?
Four weeks ago the notion of the Broncos riding running back C.J. Anderson into the playoffs would have been absurd. He hadn't carried the ball more than five times in a game before Week 10, and he was little more than a change of pace back who also played special teams. But with the running back ranks depleted due to injury, Anderson got his opportunity and responded with 13 carries for 90 yards and four catches for 73 yards including a 51-yarder that went for the touchdown that helped the Broncos start to pull away in the 41-17 blow out against the Raiders. Then, curiously enough, the next week Anderson only had nine carries for 29 yards against the Rams. The Broncos momentarily had running back Montee Ball back for that game, but he didn't make it out of the second quarter and didn't even have a single carry that day. Anderson ended up with eight catches for 86 yards, but ultimately it wasn't nearly enough as the Broncos fell to St. Louis 22-7.
The vaunted Broncos passing game just never looked to be in rhythm during their loss in St. Louis, which made the decision to give Anderson less than 10 carries even more dubious. Last weekend, the Broncos decided to hitch their wagon to Anderson for the whole game and he rose to the occasion with 167 yards on 27 carries, a touchdown and four receptions for 28 yards against the Dolphins. Anderson's big day helped the Broncos offense get back into gear as they scored 39 points to pull out a shootout win over Miami 39-36. I think its clear now that Anderson is no one week wonder. He's worthy of a big workload for the rest of the season.
We are at the point of the season when the weather starts to get nasty and having a running game is paramount. I noted earlier in the year how having a good running game helps the Broncos open up their play action pass as well. The Chiefs have the number one defense in the league against the pass and the 26th-ranked defense against the run giving up almost 130 yards a game.
Everything I've seen tells me that the Broncos are going to need to run the ball effectively to beat the Chiefs on the road. That means Anderson needs at least 20 carries in the game, no matter what. If the Broncos have learned their lesson and ride Anderson again this week, I can see them winning in blow out fashion.
If not, then it is likely going to be a long day for that Broncos offense.
2. Which pair of pass rushers will have the most sacks?
Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston is leading the league in sacks with 13. Tamba Hali, who plays opposite of him, has five on the season. Their output has helped propel the Chiefs to fourth in the league in sacks with 31 as a team. The Broncos offense, on the other hand, leads the league having given up only 12 sacks all season.
Whether or not you buy into the narrative that you can rattle Peyton Manning with pressure, the truth of the matter is since he has come back from that serious neck injury, Manning hasn't exactly been a hero when the pocket starts collapsing around him. I don't begrudge him that at all, and I don't think anyone else does either for that matter. However, with an offense as potent as the Broncos, anything that the Chiefs can do to slow them down will be at a premium. When pass rushers get close to Manning these days he tends to either throw the ball away quickly or go down easily so as to avoid injury. The more Houston and Hali can just win their one-on-one matchups, the more likely Manning will speed up his delivery, throwing off the timing of the offense off and helping the Chiefs secondary on the back end.
As for the Chiefs offense, they are tied with three other teams for 18th in the league in sacks allowed with 27. That's not exactly ideal, especially against a Broncos defense that boasts two pass rushers with the fifth- and ninth-highest sack totals in the NFL. Von Miller with his 10 sacks and DeMarcus Ware with his nine have helped to lead the Broncos to the ninth highest team sack total in the league at this point with 28. The Chiefs have had problems on their offensive line all season, especially second-year left tackle Eric Fisher. The Broncos have to take advantage of that matchup.
Photo via USA Today Sports Images
The Chiefs are unlikely to come into this game with a gameplan featuring a lot of passes, therefore Miller and Ware will have to make the most of limited opportunities. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is also pretty damned elusive and already has 191 yards on the season. I think the Broncos secondary matches up pretty well with the Chiefs skill positions, but if Smith can convert third-and-longs with his legs, that's the one thing that could give them problems. That's another reason why it is going to behoove Miller and Ware to have a big day and get Smith on the ground.
Its as simple as this, the Broncos have only given up 12 sacks all year, but four of them came in their three losses, including two they gave up to the Rams a couple of weeks ago. Miller and Ware should be expected to have a a big day all things considered, but they can't allow Houston and Hali to outshine them because the Chiefs are a lot more used to giving up sacks than the Broncos are. Whichever pair comes out of this game with more sacks will likely be on the team that wins the game.
3. Will Alex Smith have to throw 30 or more passes?
How's this for a pair of statistics?
A) The Chiefs have won seven games so far this season and only once in those seven games did they throw the ball at least 30 times.
B) The Chiefs threw the ball 30 or more times in all four of their losses.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Chiefs to ride their running game against the Broncos in light of those numbers. More importantly, Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is due for a big day on the ground. Charles has averaged 6.5, 8, and 4.2 yards per carry in the last three games, and he is still a threat to score from almost anywhere on the field.
The problem for the Chiefs is that the Broncos are the number two defense in the league against the run, giving up 75.5 yards a game. Some of this is because the Broncos offense gets up quick on their opponents, forcing teams to give up on the run. However, sometimes that's kind of a catch 22, where turning away from the running game so early, especially for teams not built to throw the ball much, actually hastens the demise against a high powered offense like the Broncos.
Even if the running game isn't all that productive, it can help take time off the clock which keeps Manning and the Broncos offense on the sideline. The Chiefs are not built to be a quick strike offense when it comes to their passing game, so anything they can do to try to keep the score low is probably going to help them. That includes riding the running game even if the score is ugly early or even if Charles gets off to a slow start.
If the Chiefs can stay the course, continue to pound the running game and keep their passing attempts under 30, I think they have an excellent chance to break some big runs with Charles and win the game. If they have to win it with Smith as a gunslinger, I don't give them much of a chance to win at all.
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